Tight. And it has been for long enough now that it's structural, not cyclical.
In Piedmont, Crocker Highlands, Trestle Glen, and the premium Berkeley Hills corridors, the number of homes that come to market above $2M in any given year is small by any measure. Understanding why — and what it means for how you buy or sell — is more useful than waiting for conditions to change.
Piedmont saw roughly 15 sales above $3M in 2025. Crocker Highlands turns over perhaps 30 to 40 homes annually across all price points. These are not markets with deep benches of available inventory — they are neighborhoods where buyers often wait months for the right home to appear, and where a single well-located property coming to market can draw every active buyer in the category.
That scarcity has a predictable effect on price. In Piedmont's $3M tier in 2025, the median sold price was $318,500 above the median list price, and homes closed in 13 days. At the $5–6.5M tier, the over-ask spread widened to 16.4%. These are not soft markets hedging toward buyers — they are structurally competitive seller's markets at every tier below $10M.
Several forces are keeping supply constrained simultaneously. Long-term owners in these neighborhoods — particularly those who bought 15 to 30 years ago — are sitting on substantial equity but face significant capital gains exposure if they sell. Prop 19 has helped some owners transfer their tax base to a replacement home anywhere in California, but the capital gains question remains and keeps many owners in place longer than their housing needs would otherwise dictate.
The lock-in effect of sub-3% mortgages from 2020 and 2021 compounds this. Owners who refinanced at 2.75% have little financial incentive to trade into a new mortgage at current rates, even when their housing situation has genuinely changed — kids have left, maintenance has become burdensome, the home no longer fits the life. The financial friction of moving has rarely been higher for long-term owners. That friction is inventory that isn't coming to market.
At this tier, patience is a liability. Well-priced homes in desirable neighborhoods move in days, not weeks. Buyers who are not pre-approved, not aligned on decision-making, and not working with an agent who has advance knowledge of coming inventory will consistently find themselves a step behind the market — not by much, but by enough.
The buyers who succeed above $2M are genuinely ready before the right home appears. That preparation — financing in order, comp familiarity, clear criteria, agent relationship established — takes weeks to build, not days. In a market where the difference between being ready and not ready is often a lost offer, starting that work before you're in love with a house is not optional.
Scarcity is working in your favor — but only if the home is well-presented and correctly priced. The 2025 Piedmont data is instructive: homes priced to invite competition closed significantly over ask. Homes priced aspirationally sat — the $10M+ tier averaged 245 days on market. Structural scarcity does not protect an overpriced listing. It makes an overpriced listing more visible as an outlier.
Long-term owners in this tier who have been weighing a sale have genuine market tailwinds right now. Demand is real, qualified buyers are active, and the supply picture is not about to change. The owners who move are the ones who decided the time was right and prepared accordingly — not the ones waiting for conditions to get even more favorable.
Last updated: March 2026 · Patrick MacCartee, The Grubb Company, DRE #02142693 · All market data should be verified against current MLS figures.
Buyers who arrive ready move fast when the right home appears. Sellers who prepare well capture the full benefit of structural scarcity. The market above $2M in the East Bay doesn't reward hesitation — from either direction.
Inventory at this tier moves fast and the data requires local fluency to read correctly. Let's talk through what the market looks like for your specific situation.
